Nicola Armaroli’s COP31: “Electrification is beneficial; fossil fuels are no longer necessary”

The energy transition is now an economic and strategic necessity, as well as a climate one. The available technologies exist (electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewables) and are now also economically sustainable. Therefore, reducing dependence on oil and gas is possible, necessary, and cost-effective. This is what Nicola Armaroli, a chemist, researcher, and author of numerous publications on energy topics, tells Vaielettrico, summarizing the expectations of the scientific community for COP31 in Antalya, Turkey. “Reality presents us with the consequences, and policy must adapt,” is his message.

"Electrify, electrify" is the theme of the global climate summit and the first episode of COP31 Barometer, Vaielettrico’s series that will follow the proceedings in Antalya step by step. Armaroli begins with a key point: despite the slowness of international negotiations and outcomes often falling short of expectations, climate conferences have produced significant effects. "It’s good that these conferences exist, because overall the ship has started to turn," he says.

Without international agreements, starting with the Paris Agreement, we would today be on a trajectory that could have led to a global temperature rise of 5-6 degrees by the end of the century. The worst scenarios have been averted, though the measures taken are still not sufficient.

But something has changed in collective perception. The climate crisis is no longer a distant problem to be addressed solely for the sake of future generations. Environmental disasters, wars, and energy crises have made clear the link between fossil fuels, geopolitical instability, and economic costs. Because “fossil fuels are our doom in terms of economics, energy security, and even the peace of our personal lives.”

It is this awareness, according to Armaroli, that should push COP31 to move from principled declarations to concrete actions.

Electrification to Cut Oil and Gas

The central theme of the Antalya summit is indeed electrification. The goal set is to cover 35% of final energy consumption with electricity by 2035.

For Armaroli, this represents an absolutely correct approach, as it is the only one that allows for the gradual replacement of fossil fuels, rather than merely adding new energy sources alongside traditional ones.

“We continue to increase global energy consumption, but if our transition is additive—meaning we still use fossil fuels and only supplement what increases with renewables—it’s not good enough. We need to start cutting at the root of the problem.”

The goal is to improve the efficiency of energy use at the end-user level. An electric motor, the researcher notes, consumes three to four times less energy compared to a thermal engine. Even more significant is the advantage of heat pumps over gas boilers.

From this perspective, electric vehicles and heat electrification play a strategic role: two technologies that directly reduce oil and gas consumption. “Electric vehicles directly cut oil consumption, while heat pumps directly cut gas consumption.” It’s not just an environmental issue. Every electric car on the road means less oil needs to be imported, and every boiler replaced with a heat pump reduces the need to purchase gas via pipelines or methane tankers. In other words, “every electric car on the road means less dependence on Hormuz. It means one less liter of gasoline or crude oil passing through Hormuz.”

Practical benefits overcome ideological resistance

Another decisive factor is that these technologies are becoming economically competitive. For years, Armaroli notes, the need to abandon fossil fuels has been emphasized primarily through the climate issue. A motivation that failed to convince everyone. Today, however, the energy crisis and rising fuel prices are making the advantages of electric alternatives increasingly clear. “I have to do this because it’s simply in my best interest.”

Armaroli cites the example of an electric car charged at home: “Charging with electricity from your home garage costs half as much as filling up with gasoline.” This cost advantage, combined with the gradual decline in electric vehicle prices, is changing the terms of comparison with traditional technologies.

Policy is lagging behind reality

While the technological and economic direction now seems clear, the behavior of politics is far less convincing. Armaroli observes a growing gap between government decisions and the evolution of the energy landscape.

International tensions and price crises demonstrate how risky it is to continue relying on imports of fossil fuels. Yet in recent years, the issue of transition has been increasingly sidelined in various countries, sometimes dismissed as an ideological battle or one waged by radical environmentalists. “Politics is always out of step with reality.” For example, in the United States, despite President Trump’s administration’s opposition to various policies supporting transition, the renewable energy sector continues to grow, driven by corporate investments and the economic interests of states and local communities.

According to Armaroli, this is proof that the market has now embarked on a path that is difficult to reverse. “The business case for renewables is now so clear that no one can stop it, so it’s better to embrace it.” Moreover, the absence of key global leaders in Antalya does not necessarily indicate a halt in the transition: economic and industrial dynamics often progress faster than political decisions.

35% electrification by 2035: the goal to achieve

But what concrete outcome should COP31 produce? For Armaroli, the priority is to reach a clear and shared commitment to the goal of 35% electrification of final consumption by 2035.

This is an ambitious target, especially when compared to the current situation. Europe and the United States are around 22%, while China has already surpassed 30%, with some industrial zones exceeding 40%.

Therefore, according to the researcher, formalizing this goal at the international level would be important not only to accelerate national policies but also to persuade citizens and businesses to invest in electric technologies.

The transformation must start with homes and transportation, then gradually extend to industry. “Electrifying everything, beginning with homes and vehicles, and then industry and everything else, is the main thing we need to do if we want to protect our finances, our future, and our climate.” This is Armaroli’s conclusion, who invites us to the final episode of our “barometer” for a final assessment of COP31.

Now the word passes to a field expert who will keep us updated on the progress of the work. It will be Andrea Ghianda, Head of Communications at Ecco think tank.

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