BYD is surprised by its own success outside China and has raised its forecasts: it expects to sell 1,800,000 cars this year

Four years ago, BYD, China’s largest manufacturer of electric and plug-in hybrid cars, sold just over 50,000 units outside its home country. By 2026, it aims to reach 1.8 million. This figure was announced by Li Yunfei, the group’s brand and public relations director, representing a nearly 40% increase from the 1.3 million target set in January.

This is the second time this year that BYD has raised its international sales forecast, as its president, Wang Chuanfu, had previously increased it to 1.5 million at the end of March. The raise comes amid stagnant overall sales: from January to October, the company delivered 3,621,700 vehicles, 2.16% fewer than the previous year. Sales outside China are what are compensating for this slowdown in domestic markets.

A pace that already exceeds the previous target

In October, BYD sold nearly 170,000 sedans and pickups outside China, a 103% increase from the previous year and accounting for 34.6% of its total sales for that month. From January to October, international sales reached 1,507,400 units, a 92% rise, representing 41.6% of the overall sales. This means the target set for March has already been surpassed. In the first half of the year, 52.57% of BYD’s revenue came from outside China.

The growth trend over the past few years explains this optimism, as sales rose from just over 50,000 units in 2022 to over 200,000 in 2023, over 400,000 in 2024, and 1.04 million in 2025. If it meets the new forecast, it will have increased its overseas sales by more than 30 times in four years.

A forecast that seems prudent

To reach 1.8 million units, BYD only needs to sell around 146,000 units per month in November and December, which is below its October sales figure. Additionally, after meeting with the company’s management in early September, Deutsche Bank and Citi stated that the internal target was already set between 1.9 and 2 million units. The new official figure serves more as a safety net than as an ambitious goal.

Denza and Yangwang: The Strategy of Selling at Higher Prices

BYD is also accelerating the international expansion of its luxury brands. On July 9, BYD’s premium brand, Denza, was officially launched in Europe with the Denza Z9 GT, an electric sedan featuring long range and high quality, available in Spain at a minimum price of over 100,000 euros. The goal is to compete with Europe’s three major luxury brands: Audi, BMW, and Mercedes.

The final step was taken by Yangwang, the group’s ultra-luxury brand, which recently unveiled the Yangwang Altior, a 5.6-meter sedan capable of competing directly with a Rolls-Royce. Its limited edition Shanhe Dingyun has an estimated price of 2.08 million yuan, or around 270,400 euros, and deliveries are set to begin in the second quarter of 2027. According to BYD’s management, each car sold outside China generates an average net profit of about 2,600 euros, a level they expect to maintain this year.

Own factories to bypass tariffs

The other aspect of forecasting is local production. BYD’s factory in Brazil is already operational, and the one in Hungary will begin assembling cars by the end of 2026, as projects in Thailand, Indonesia, and other markets progress. Wang Chuanfu sees local manufacturing and a global network of ultra-fast charging stations as BYD’s key advantages outside China, aiming to split sales evenly between his home country and the rest of the world someday. Meanwhile, the brand continues to achieve milestones. On November 9, its 19 millionth electric vehicle rolled off the assembly line—a Fang Cheng Bao Ti9, the flagship SUV in the Ti series.