Preview: Tesla with Q3 financial results and outlook – Merger with SpaceX comes into focus

Image: Tesla

Following the release of Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 financial results, SpaceX’s stock surged significantly before market open on Wednesday — likely not only because earnings per share were higher than expected but also because CEO Elon Musk confirmed preparations for a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. Investors may receive further updates on this topic later in the day, as Tesla will then release its own Q3 figures.

Tesla’s earnings likely fell further

Unlike SpaceX, the profit of this Musk-owned company in Q3 2026 is likely to have declined compared to the previous year. On average, analysts predicted $0.45 in adjusted earnings per share, according to a Monday overview. For Q3 2025, Tesla reported $0.50, about 30 percent less than the year before. In contrast, revenue reached a record high of $28.1 billion at that time and is expected to have increased slightly further now.

About 72 percent of Tesla’s projected revenue of $28.34 billion in Q3 2026 is expected to come from its electric vehicle business. With the presentation of the short-range flying Roadster last week, Tesla attracted tremendous attention, but commercially, this rocket-powered electric car (see photo above) plays no major role, CEO Musk wrote later. Instead, the overwhelming majority of Tesla’s value will be generated by the Optimus robot and the autonomous Robotaxi Cybercab.

Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.

The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power, and mass to space.

And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.…

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2026

The CEO had expressed similar views in the past, so investors ahead of the Q3 earnings report and subsequent conference call were particularly eager for new comments on these two Tesla-related topics, according to MarketWatch. However, on the night before Wednesday in Germany, Musk confirmed preparations for a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. This could give the Q3 conference that evening a completely different focus.

Q3 Conference live on YouTube

The release of Tesla’s financial report for Q3 2026, including explanations and a brief outlook, is expected on Wednesday shortly after the U.S. market closes at 10 PM German time. The conference call with analysts, during which pre-submitted questions from individual investors are typically answered as well, was scheduled for 11:30 PM. A live stream of the conference is available on YouTube, among other platforms: