T&E analysis: sufficient European battery cells by 2030
In an analysis of the EU's planned local content requirements for batteries, T&E has concluded that a sufficient number of 'Made in EU' battery cells will be available by 2030. This contradicts the current claims of the automotive industry.
View inside CATL's battery factory in Arnstadt
Image: CATL
For months, the EU and its member states have been discussing draft proposals for the ‘Industrial Accelerator Act’ (IAA) introduced in March, which aims to boost production and competitiveness within the European Union. These measures also affect the automotive and battery industries: for example, the European Commission plans to introduce so-called Local Content provisions that would prioritise ‘Made in EU’ EVs – i.e., those manufactured within the EU – in public procurement and funding programmes.
Special conditions for local value creation in the EU are also envisaged for traction batteries in electric vehicles. This has recently caused significant concern, as the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has published a study examining whether the European battery supply chain can meet the requirements of the legislative package. The result: a significant gap. ACEA argues that there is a time lag: a new battery factory can take nearly a decade from announcement to full-scale industrial production. Even projects launched today may not reach full capacity until around 2035. ACEA is therefore calling for more time and a phased introduction of Local Content requirements, particularly for cells and cathode active materials.
European battery cell production to meet demand by 2030
However, the think tank Transport & Environment (T&E) has now presented its own study, concluding that sufficient ‘Made in EU’ battery cells will be available by 2030. T&E itself emphasises that the analysis contradicts the recent claims of the automotive industry – namely, those of ACEA.
According to the study, European cell production will already be sufficient by 2027 to fully cover the demand for funded company cars and a significant portion of funded private cars. By 2030, both segments could be supplied with enough European battery cells – provided that projects with a medium probability of implementation are also realised. However, a quarter of the cell capacities announced since 2022 have been cancelled or put on hold. Germany is particularly affected, with its project pipeline for 2035 halved, according to T&E. The organisation cites examples such as ACC in Kaiserslautern and the closure of Cellforce by Porsche. On the other hand, VW subsidiary PowerCo was able to open its first cell factory in Salzgitter in December 2025, which, once ramped up, will significantly increase local value creation in the battery supply chain.
Notably, the ownership structure of European cell production is also striking: according to T&E, more than 85 per cent of active capacity is owned by non-European companies, with South Korean manufacturers accounting for 72 per cent of production. The South Korean manufacturers in question are likely LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On, which operate cell factories in Poland and Hungary, respectively. Another major cell manufacturer is the Chinese battery giant CATL, with its factory in Arnstadt near Erfurt and its second European factory in Debrecen, Hungary, which has just started test production.
For the ‘Made in EU’ requirements, it is the production location rather than the manufacturer’s country of origin that matters. In other words, the establishment of Asian battery cell manufacturers in the EU also helps meet the Local Content criteria, as local production within the EU is the decisive factor.
“Since the collapse of Northvolt, there has been considerable scepticism in Germany about whether it is possible to build a domestic battery industry. Yet our data shows that Germany is already a relevant location in the European battery ecosystem and has great potential. When Berlin debates the future of German industry, much of the focus is on products of the past, such as the internal combustion engine. It is time to shift the focus to industries of the future, like the battery industry. Supporting an effective Industry Accelerator Act would be an important step here,” said Susanne Goetz, Senior Advisor for E-Mobility at T&E Germany.
Xavier Sol, Director Sustainable Investments and Batteries at T&E, added: “Recent years have shown that, unfortunately, a strong European battery value chain won’t build itself – the competition from Asia is simply too large. Without smart demand-side rules for locally produced battery components, Europe risks its qualification in the race for clean tech. Building a secure, local value chain can ensure security of supply, create jobs and economic resilience”
T&E identifies larger gaps in precursor materials. For cathode active material (CAM), although 529,000 tonnes of annual European capacity have been announced for 2030, only around 177,000 tonnes remain after weighting projects by their probability of implementation. The uncertainty is even greater for pCAM (cathode precursor material): of the announced projects with a total of 552.6 GWh cell equivalent, T&E considers only 217.9 GWh likely to be achieved by 2030. The organisation therefore advocates maintaining the planned cell and CAM requirements of the Industry Accelerator Act and, in addition, introducing minimum quotas for pCAM and anode active material from 2032 onwards.
