Study: Where the charging needs for electric trucks will arise in Europe

Image: Daimler Truck (illustrative)

A report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) provides a detailed overview of where and when charging needs for battery electric trucks may arise in Europe by 2045. Using the newly developed “Vesuvio” model, the researchers show that charging demand will grow significantly in the coming decades, concentrate in a limited number of locations, and vary greatly between countries.

The electrification of heavy commercial vehicles is gaining momentum in Europe. However, the expansion of charging infrastructure and grid capacity has so far failed to keep up. The report “Spatiotemporal Analysis of Electric Truck Charging Demand in Europe” provides analyses in this context regarding the spatial distribution of charging demand for battery-electric trucks across the 27 EU member states, as well as in Britain, Norway, and Switzerland. It takes into account both depot charging and public charging while on the road.

The demand is modeled over a week using a grid with a spatial resolution of approximately 17 by 20 kilometers and in 15-minute intervals. The results show that the charging demand for battery electric trucks increases significantly in all scenarios analyzed. In a scenario with favorable policy conditions for the adoption of battery electric trucks, the annual charging demand in Europe will reach around 100 terawatt-hours by 2035 and rise to about 200 terawatt-hours by 2045. The highest demand is expected in major freight transport markets such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy.

"Our analysis shows that the charging demand for electric trucks in Europe will not be evenly distributed across countries and regions. Instead, it will concentrate on specific freight corridors, industrial sites, and logistics centers," explains Steffen Link, a researcher at Fraunhofer ISI and lead author of the report. "Therefore, when expanding infrastructure and planning networks, those areas with particularly high and stable demand should be given priority. Otherwise, there is a risk that the necessary grid infrastructure will not keep up with the rapid shift to battery-electric trucks."

Depot charging dominates, public charging remains important

A key finding of the report is that depot charging dominates in all countries and scenarios. In most cases, it accounts for more than 70 to 80 percent of total charging demand. At the same time, public charging for long-distance travel remains highly important and can make up 30 to 50 percent of total charging demand in some smaller transit countries.

The study also shows that charging demands vary significantly across regions in Europe. National freight transport structures, geographical conditions, and the composition of vehicle fleets result in greatly different spatial demand patterns and charging profiles. Therefore, unified infrastructure strategies for the entire Europe are likely insufficient.

Charging demand concentrated in a few hotspots

Another key finding highlights that charging demand is highly concentrated in a few areas: In many countries, just one percent of locations account for roughly one quarter to one third of the total charging power demand. The top ten percent together cover between 60 and 90 percent of a country’s total charging demand. Thus, the charging needs of electric trucks are concentrated in a relatively small number of locations—particularly along major freight routes, at highway interchanges, as well as in urban areas and industrial centers.

"Generic infrastructure targets are not sufficient for the transition to zero-emission trucks. Policymakers and infrastructure operators need a much more precise understanding of where charging demand arises and how it changes over time," said Hussein Basma, a research associate at ICCT and co-author of the report. "Our findings show that charging facilities at just the top 10 percent of locations could cover up to 90 percent of total charging demand for electric trucks in Europe. Identifying these priority locations enables proactive and effective network planning."

The study also highlights significant local peak loads. In larger countries with high freight traffic volumes, the most heavily burdened areas often reach peak values between 20 and 50 megawatts. This applies especially to regions with a high density of logistics centers. According to the authors, the results indicate that future challenges for power grids are likely to arise initially at individual hotspots rather than being evenly distributed across national power systems.

The report concludes that future infrastructure development should focus on priority locations, flexible and forward-looking network expansion plans, as well as tailored national strategies. In particular, the authors recommend promoting charging at depots as the backbone of charging infrastructure for battery electric trucks, while simultaneously ensuring targeted public charging coverage in transit areas.

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About the author

Thomas Langenbucher is an expert in electromobility with professional experience in the automotive industry and finance sector. Since 2011, he has been covering electric vehicles, sustainable technologies, and mobility solutions on ecomento.de. Learn more.

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