Study: E-truck charging demand will concentrate in hotspots

The electricity demand for charging electric trucks in Europe could rise to around 100 TWh per year by 2035 and to about 200 TWh by 2045. This is according to a study by Fraunhofer ISI and ICCT, which also notes that a large portion of this demand is likely to concentrate in relatively few locations.

A new report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) provides a detailed overview of where and when charging demands for electric trucks could arise in Europe by 2045. For the report titled “Spatiotemporal Analysis of Electric Truck Charging Demand in Europe,” experts from both organizations projected how energy demand would develop. The 27 EU member states, along with the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland, were included in the analysis. The study is based on the newly developed VESUVIO model, which maps depot and public charging locations on a grid of approximately 17 by 20 kilometers and covers a one-week period in 15-minute intervals.

In a scenario with favorable political conditions for the rollout of battery-electric trucks (“Moderate Electrification”), the annual charging demand is projected to rise to around 100 TWh by 2035 and to approximately 200 TWh by 2045. This demand is particularly high in the major freight transport markets of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy. The following chart shows the regional hotspots for electric truck charging demand identified by the VESUVIO model for 2035:

The depot remains by far the most important charging location. In most countries and scenarios, more than 70 to 80 percent of the total charging demand comes from depot charging. For long-distance transport, public charging infrastructure remains crucial: in some smaller transit countries, its share can reach 30 to 50 percent according to the study.

E-Truck Charging Demand Concentrates in Hotspots

The spatial concentration is particularly evident. In many countries, only one percent of the locations studied account for around a quarter to a third of the total charging demand. The top 10 percent with the highest demand account for between 60 and 90 percent of the total, depending on the country. These hotspots are located mainly along major freight corridors, at highway interchanges, as well as in urban areas, industrial zones, and logistics centers.

The required grid capacity there can be correspondingly high. In larger countries with heavy freight traffic, Fraunhofer ISI and ICCT predict peak loads of 20 to 50 MW in particularly stressed areas. The challenges for power grids are likely to arise initially at specific logistics hotspots rather than being evenly distributed across national grids. The following chart shows the projected energy demand in the countries studied:

The scale of requirements that will be relevant in Germany is illustrated by the plans for the government-backed fast-charging network for trucks. For the operated highway service areas, the federal government has already calculated the estimated grid connection capacity needed by 2035. For example, at the Garbsen Nord site on the A2, 24.64 MVA is currently planned, and several other large sites also require more than 20 MVA. However, most service areas fall within the four-digit kVA range.

Approximately 1,300 MCS charging stations and 2,000 CCS charging stations are planned for the managed rest areas alone. Together with the already allocated unmanaged locations, the network initiated by the federal government is set to grow to around 1,800 MCS charging stations and 2,400 CCS charging stations in total. The plan also includes the possibility of expanding individual locations later if the initially installed charging infrastructure does not permanently meet actual demand.

Private providers are also already focusing their expansion on key freight transport routes. For example, Milence plans to expand its European network along major traffic axes and TEN-T corridors, where it will increasingly deploy megawatt-level charging systems in the future. The joint venture between Daimler Truck, Traton, and Volvo Group currently operates around 40 charging parks in Europe and aims to reach a total of 70 locations by the end of 2027. At individual charging parks, Milence also uses stationary battery storage to support high charging speeds.

The study’s authors recommend focusing on promoting charging stations as the backbone of infrastructure rather than relying on other methods, and expanding public charging options specifically in transit areas and highly frequented locations. Meanwhile, the necessary grid capacity must be planned ahead of time and approved by the government.