No matter how much oil passes through Hormuz, we won’t pay less in Spain for gasoline and diesel.

01/10/2026 12:30

Updated to

01/10/2026 12:30

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning to pre-conflict levels, reducing fears of a major physical supply crisis. However, for Spanish drivers, normalization will be much slower: gasoline and diesel are around 2 euros per liter after months of sharp price increases. Refined products remain scarce, geopolitical risks continue to affect prices, and logistical and insurance costs make a quick return to significantly cheaper fuels unlikely.

A few weeks ago, the main concern was that the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz would cause a physical collapse in supply. That extreme scenario is starting to lose momentum.

JPMorgan estimates that crude oil shipments from the Middle East have returned to around 17.5 million barrels per day, nearly 98% of the level before the conflict. Goldman Sachs also notes significant recovery, with LNG ship traffic linked to Qatar starting to increase.

Spanish gasoline prices have risen for twelve weeks straight

This improvement comes after a very difficult summer for Spanish drivers. In mid-August, 95 octane gasoline cost approximately 1.70 euros per liter and diesel 1.82 euros. By early September, these prices had risen to 1.73 and 1.87 euros respectively.

The biggest spike occurred in September. According to the latest available European Petroleum Bulletin dated September 24, gasoline was priced at 1.928 euros per liter and diesel at 1.918 euros, but actual prices reached 2 euros or more depending on the gas station visited.

Gasoline had seen twelve consecutive weeks of price increases, with a rise of around 30% since late June. Filling a 55-liter tank now cost approximately 106 euros. The situation for diesel is particularly delicate because the problem lies not only in oil prices.

Crude oil is returning, but diesel remains in short supply

JPMorgan estimates that while crude oil flows have largely recovered, those of refined products are still around 58% of pre-conflict levels.

In addition, Russia has just extended its restrictions on diesel exports until the end of October, and much of the world’s refining capacity is already operating with little extra margin.

That is why something seemingly contradictory can occur: oil prices falling while diesel remains expensive. To this are added higher insurance costs, alternative routes, and cargo transfers needed to keep oil moving.

What could happen now with gasoline and diesel?

In the short term, over the next few weeks, the most likely scenario is high prices and significant volatility. The recovery of flows through Hormuz should prevent further rises caused solely by an extreme shortage of crude, but this improvement still needs to reach the refineries and then the gas stations.

The oil price itself reflects this expectation. Brent crude for immediate delivery remains around $100, while later-month contracts trade below this level, indicating that the market anticipates some easing.

In the medium term, sustained normalization of operations in Hormuz could allow for a gradual decline. JPMorgan has recently estimated the reasonable price for Brent at around $90 per barrel, although it acknowledges exceptional uncertainty regarding the development of the conflict.

In Spain, there is another factor: the tax cuts planned for the last months of 2026 may ease some of the international price fluctuations, but they will not lower current fuel prices.

This allows us to rule out the worst scenario for now, but it won’t bring prices back to their pre-summer levels quickly. Oil is flowing again; cheap gasoline and diesel are not yet available.