Automotive executives issue a serious warning: 6 of the world’s 10 largest manufacturers will be Chinese by 2035.

23/10/2026 10:00

Updated to

23/10/2026 10:00

The automotive industry could see a radical shift in its global leadership over the next decade. A KPMG survey of 775 senior executives in the sector found that 48% believe six of the world’s top ten automakers will be headquartered in China by 2035. The recently published study also indicates that 51% of respondents think software and digital technology will be the key competitive advantage for their companies. This scenario poses significant challenges for traditional European manufacturers.

China could host six of the world’s ten largest automakers

For decades, leadership in the automotive industry has been primarily shared among European, Japanese, American, and South Korean manufacturers. However, industry leaders themselves believe this balance could change significantly.

KPMG’s 26th Global Automotive Executive Survey shows how much confidence has grown in the competitive capabilities of Chinese companies.

Almost half of the 775 executives surveyed expect six of the top ten automakers to have their headquarters in China by 2035. This is not a verified sales forecast but rather the expectations expressed by industry professionals.

Companies like BYD, Geely, Chery, and SAIC represent a transformation that goes beyond mere commercial growth. Their development of batteries, electronics, and new platforms is reshaping the competitive priorities in the automotive industry.

Software may be more important than traditional engineering

The report also highlights a shift in the factors that will determine manufacturers’ success. 51% of respondents believe software and digital technology will become the main source of differentiation for their companies by 2035.

Artificial intelligence, advanced driver assistance systems, and wireless updates will take center stage over traditional mechanical features.

However, there is a problem: 92% of companies need at least twelve months to implement new digital, software, or artificial intelligence capabilities across their entire organization. More than a third require even more than two years.

In addition, KPMG notes that only 36% of artificial intelligence and software initiatives successfully move beyond the pilot phase to scale up.

Europe faces new technological competition

Regional differences are also significant. 57% of respondents in Asia-Pacific reported substantial investment in artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, compared to 52% in Europe and 48% in the Americas.

The survey also indicates an industry where technological partnerships will become increasingly important. According to KPMG, the proportion of value creation linked to external collaborations could rise from the current 30% to 44% within three years.

For European manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, Renault, or BMW, the challenge is no longer just to produce competitive electric vehicles. They must also accelerate the development of software, batteries, and digital services while maintaining their industrial profitability.

The study does not conclude that China is guaranteed to dominate the global automotive industry by 2035, but rather that a significant portion of industry executives consider such a scenario possible. And this perception can already influence their investment decisions in the coming years.