Italian-style nuclear energy seems feasible on paper. But 2033 is just around the corner.

The Senate approved the delegation bill for Italy’s new nuclear program, while Newcleo recently made its debut on Nasdaq. These two developments could be seen by the government and industry as signs of a new era for nuclear energy in Italy. However, there’s one detail: there is still a tremendous amount of work to be done between these announcements and the first kilowatt-hour of power being generated. Moreover, the timeline aiming to have the first commercial reactors operational by 2032 or 2034 is far from certain. For this reason, international investors seem to have ignored the Italian company founded by Stefano Buono, which aims to develop the next-generation mini reactors mentioned in the recently approved bill.

The measure is intended to establish the regulatory framework for the return of “nuclear energy in Italian style,” leaving the detailed procedures to be defined through implementing decrees. It is here that the problems begin. A law does not authorize a reactor, build an industrial chain, or turn a prototype into a power plant. Newcleo, which represents one of Italy’s most ambitious bets on advanced reactors, is well aware of this. So far it has raised around $247 million in stock market offerings (SEC), but it has yet to complete even the prototype of its mini reactor.

Newcleo debuts on the stock market. But the Nasdaq is not yet a power plant.

On September 22, Newcleo began trading on Nasdaq following its merger with Spac NewHold, at a pre-money valuation of around $2.4 billion.

However, the debut was far from triumphant: the stock lost 16% in the early stages of trading, ending at around -9%. It has not recovered since, trading at around $7.80 today, despite the early announcement of approval for Italy’s nuclear program.

Naturally, a few days of trading on the stock market say nothing about the viability of nuclear technology. But it serves as a useful reminder: the financial market is buying an industrial promise, not an already operational reactor fleet.

Renewables first, then (maybe) nuclear, says Enel

Newcleo still needs to complete the 10 MW thermal non-nuclear demonstrator in Brasimone, advance the design, obtain approvals, and develop MOX fuel production. The company also mentions regulatory activities in the United States and France as uses for the new capital.

The first reactor by 2032? A path full of obstacles

And this is where the narrative becomes interesting for Italy. Stefano Buono set the end of 2032 or early 2033 as the target for the first commercial reactor, while speaking more cautiously about 2035 for Italy.

The issue isn’t determining today whether those dates are impossible. The problem is figuring out how many conditions must occur simultaneously for them to become reality.

First, there needs to be a regulatory authority with procedures suited for advanced reactors. What’s also required are:

a final design,

component qualification,

a supply chain,

fuel,

a site,

financing,

permits,

and construction. Only then will Newcleo demonstrate in practice that fourth-generation lead-cooled mini reactor technology can move from the experimental phase to commercial use. This isn’t a bureaucratic detail—it’s precisely the step that separates a deep-tech startup from an electric utility company.

Experts’ doubts: when, how, at what cost

Regarding the nuclear bill approved by the Senate, the Climate Media Center Italia gathered the opinions of four experts with differing views. This comparison highlights one of the most delicate aspects of the discussion: it is not enough to ask whether nuclear energy will return to Italy; we must understand when it will actually be available and what role it can play in an electricity system that needs to be revolutionized in a very short time.

Nicola Armaroli, a research director at CNR, emphasizes that the new legislative framework represents only a first step. In his view, a funding model, an independent oversight authority, suitable sites, and a final technological decision are still lacking. For this reason, he considers it unrealistic to have nuclear power in Italy before 2040. Even more interesting is the issue of the electricity grid into which the new reactors would need to be integrated. Armaroli notes that over the next 10-15 years, Italy will still need to accelerate significantly in renewable energy and suggests a scenario where these could meet a very large portion of demand. In that context, he argues, a nuclear plant designed to operate as much as possible throughout the year might find itself competing with abundant renewable energy production during peak hours and periods.

greater availability.

A different view comes from Giuseppe Zollino, a professor of Energy Technology and Economics and Nuclear Plants at the University of Padua, who believes nuclear energy should instead form a continuous component of the energy mix, alongside hydroelectric, photovoltaic, wind power, and storage systems. However, Zollino focuses on the long term: nuclear energy’s contribution by 2030 would still be zero, and by 2035 it would remain limited; he argues that the real impact should be assessed over the next 15-20 years.

Significant differences also exist in the technological realm. Giovanni Ludovico Montagnani, an electrical engineer and climate activist, views nuclear energy as potentially useful as a backup to ensure a level of production independent of the variability in renewable sources, but he believes it is difficult to assign it a decisive role in decarbonization. Regarding timelines, he notes that even SMR technologies like France’s Nuward project have not yet reached the prototype stage, making more immediate timeframes highly ambitious.

Finally, Luigi Moccia, a research director at CNR, urges us to look at concrete precedents: for large reactors, he argues, the timelines observed in countries that already have the necessary sites, regulations, and safety authorities show that two decades is not an abnormal timeframe. For SMRs, however, the issue is that there is still a lack of sufficient operational experience to establish reliable timelines and costs. His conclusion is clear: decarbonization requires technologies that can be built now, not in many years.

An industrial goal yet to be proven

This is precisely the issue that directly affects Newcleo as well. If even launching a conventional nuclear program requires years of regulation, funding, site selection, and construction, the goal of having the first advanced reactors operational by 2032-2034 must necessarily be viewed as an industrial target to be achieved, rather than an already planned energy capacity. Meanwhile, Italy will still need to decide how to meet the rapidly growing electricity demand over the next decade.

The debate, therefore, should not be reduced to a confrontation between supporters and opponents. A more practical question is: which technologies can provide electricity with low emissions, at sustainable costs, and in a timely manner to transform Italy’s energy system? Nuclear power could be one of the long-term solutions. But it cannot be used as a solution to an energy supply problem that must be addressed in the coming years using tools already available.

Italy passes the law while time runs out

The bill on nuclear power is taking shape as companies already demand immediate answers to the growing need for cheap energy (and it remains to be proven that nuclear energy qualifies as such).

Newcleo explicitly stated in recent months the need to quickly establish Italy’s licensing system. Buono explained to il Giornale that, in order to meet industrial deadlines, stable rules and efficient procedures are required.

Nuclear energy in Italian style? Dear Pichetto, “no, thanks.”

For this reason as well, Newcleo is looking primarily to the United States for its first commercial reactor, considering that country’s regulatory system better suited to meeting the 2032 deadline. Meanwhile, Italy must address rising electricity demand, the electrification of transportation and industry, the expansion of renewable energy, the emission reductions required by PNIEC, and the strengthening of power grids. A future reactor cannot be counted as available energy today.

Nasdaq can provide Newcleo with capital and visibility. The law can offer Italy a regulatory framework. But neither of these automatically generates electrons.

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