IEA analysis: Global electrification target of 35 percent moving closer
Image: Tesla (illustrative)
A special analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), prepared at the request of Turkey as president and Australia as negotiating chair of the 2026 UN Climate Conference (COP31), examines the potential for faster electrification worldwide. It explores differences by sector and region, as well as impacts on energy security and climate goals, additional benefits, and conflicting objectives.
The analysis serves as a basis for an IEA-COP31 Energy Dialogue in New York, where countries are discussing a global electrification target of 35 percent. With today’s available technologies and energy prices at pre-current supply shock levels, electricity could, according to the study, cost-effectively meet 33 percent of global final energy consumption by 2035, up from 23 percent currently. This means the target of 35 percent discussed is “within easy reach,” per the analysis. At current energy prices during the Hormuz Strait crisis, an even larger share of global energy consumption could be electrified cost-effectively.
The global electricity consumption has grown faster than economic output in recent years, and nearly twice as fast as total energy demand. The analysis identifies air conditioning systems, data centers, advanced manufacturing, and electric vehicles as key drivers. In a scenario of significantly accelerated electrification, countries that import fuel could reduce their energy import bills by more than 400 billion dollars by 2035 compared to the 2025 level. At the same time, global oil consumption could drop by 18 million barrels per day without this development, mainly due to the rapid spread of electric vehicles.
Electrification aims to reduce emissions in key sectors
Transport, buildings, and industry together account for more than half of energy-related CO2 emissions. Under a scenario of accelerated electrification, emissions from these three sectors are expected to drop by 40 percent by 2035. This reduction aligns with international climate goals and would put overall energy-related CO2 emissions on a downward trajectory, regardless of the electricity generation mix.
According to the study authors, rapid expansion of domestic low-emission electricity supply would further enhance benefits in terms of energy security and emissions reduction, while electrification also supports international goals to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements and triple the total capacity of renewable energy sources.
During this year’s crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, dubbed the second major energy shock in five years, momentum is building around key electrical technologies. According to the study, cost-effective ways to achieve higher electrification rates exist in all regions but vary by country. In many emerging and developing countries, these include electric water pumps for agriculture, electric two- and three-wheeled vehicles, as well as increased electricity use by small businesses in sectors such as food and textiles.
According to analysts, implementing this requires additional investment in power generation and grids, as well as smarter and more flexible electricity systems. At the same time, concentrated supply chains, cybersecurity risks, natural disasters, and climate hazards are identified as threats to electricity supply. Additionally, policy makers should assist certain households and businesses in covering the initial costs so that the benefits of electrification can be more widely shared.
Also interesting
About the author
Thomas Langenbucher is an expert in electromobility with experience in the automotive and financial industries. Since 2011, he has been covering electric vehicles, sustainable technologies, and mobility solutions for ecomento.de. Learn more.
Reader interactions