Significant climate benefit from switching to electric vehicles early on
The assumption that it is sustainable to drive a functional car with an internal combustion engine rather than quickly scrapping it and switching to an electric vehicle is clearly a misconception in many cases. A U.S. study now shows that in 92 percent of the modeled scenarios, switching to an electric vehicle is more environmentally friendly than sticking with a combustion engine car.
A study by researchers at the University of California Santa Cruz shows that switching from a gasoline car to an electric vehicle early on almost always results in a significant improvement in CO2 emissions. However, a key requirement is that the gasoline car must not be resold but must actually be scrapped — because resale and continued use would still generate CO2 emissions. Thus, making the switch can be worthwhile in terms of CO2 emissions even if a gasoline car that is only one year old is scrapped and replaced with an electric vehicle. The researchers did not determine whether this is also beneficial for the driver’s wallet.
The scientists examined over 400 different vehicle scenarios for their study, now published in the scientific journal “Science.” Factors such as fuel efficiency, battery size, annual mileage, and regional electricity mixes (with a focus on the U.S.) were taken into account. The result: In 92 percent of the modeled scenarios, switching to an electric vehicle as early as possible is more environmentally friendly than continuing to use a gasoline engine. This makes sense because, logically, a gasoline engine emits more CO2 the longer it is used.
According to the study, an electric car recovers the CO2 footprint from vehicle and battery production after about three years, becoming more environmentally friendly than a combustion engine vehicle thereafter. This is also referred to as a “CO2 burden” that a new electric car carries, and manufacturers are increasingly striving to reduce it. For example, BMW claims that the iX3 achieves a lower CO2 footprint after 21,500 kilometers than a comparable combustion engine vehicle. In other words, if the annual driving distance is 11,000 kilometers, this figure is reached after just two years.
Once an electric vehicle gets rid of its “CO2 burden,” its advantage in reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to a similar gasoline or diesel vehicle grows rapidly. Even if the replaced internal combustion engine vehicle is only one to two years old, overall emissions over its entire lifespan decrease by up to 44 percent when switching to an electric vehicle, according to the researchers. But for this to happen, the internal combustion engine vehicle must indeed be scrapped, as mentioned, rather than sold.
The study’s authors, J. Elliott Campbell and Roland Geyer, emphasize that these findings significantly strengthen the sustainability of electric vehicles. Campbell states that the results “make the sustainability arguments for owning electric vehicles crystal clear.” He also warns that given these findings, “the pace of climate action measures must be accelerated as well.”
According to the study, the environmental advantage of scrapping a gasoline vehicle and purchasing a new electric car is largely independent of annual mileage. Even drivers who travel relatively little can quickly reach the threshold. Only in regions with a power mix heavily reliant on coal might the advantage be smaller or non-existent—but in Europe, charging electric cars with renewable energy is practically standard.
The scientists also identify a critical factor: the used car market. This is because the climate benefits would diminish if combustion engine vehicles, which should have been phased out, were reintroduced into traffic. Nevertheless, the conclusion remains that relying solely on the “remaining useful life” of combustion engine vehicles ignores the actual climate protection potential of switching to electric cars earlier.