China has control, and at any moment we will pay more for gasoline and diesel.

30/10/2026 17:00

Updated to

30/10/2026 17:00

Spanish drivers may face another wave of rising gasoline and diesel prices in the coming weeks. Consultant BCA Research warns that rising oil prices, declining Chinese reserves, and difficulties at U.S. refineries are creating conditions for another surge in fuel costs. According to their analysis, the Brent crude price has risen by 12% since the end of September, while gasoline and diesel futures have not yet followed this trend. This gap could widen if tensions in the energy market continue to rise.

Oil rises 12%, but gasoline and diesel prices haven’t caught up

The recent trend in energy markets has created an unusual situation. According to BCA Research’s analysis, while Brent crude has risen by 12% since late September, diesel futures have fallen by 0.9% and gasoline futures by 1.3%.

This difference does not mean that fuel prices at gas stations have dropped by those percentages; rather, their futures contracts have moved differently from crude oil during the analyzed period.

The consultancy believes this separation could eventually lead to further price increases if supply restrictions persist.

China Might Stop Containing International Prices

One of the main risks identified by BCA Research comes from China. Over the past few months, its exports of refined fuels have helped ease pressure on other international markets.

However, the country needs to rebuild its fuel reserves, which, according to the consultancy, have dropped to levels not seen since 2022. If Chinese refineries allocate a larger share of their production to domestic consumption and stock replenishment, the availability of gasoline and diesel for other countries could decrease.

This situation is compounded by pending maintenance shutdowns at U.S. refineries, which could temporarily limit their production. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contribute to uncertainty regarding global oil supply.

Diesel shortages may persist until 2027

The warnings do not come solely from BCA Research. The International Energy Agency noted in its October report that diesel markets remain particularly strained.

Global exports of this fuel in September were around 700,000 barrels per day, lower than those recorded a year earlier. Additionally, the agency believes that replenishing stock levels will be difficult, and the shortage could persist well into 2027.

For Spain, further price increases would have consequences for both private drivers and freight transportation, agriculture, and other industries dependent on diesel.

However, there is still no confirmed specific increase for Spanish gas stations. The final price will also depend on the prices of refined products, exchange rates, and profit margins.

The scenario outlined by BCA Research represents a risk of further price increases, not a guarantee that they will occur. Its development will depend especially on China’s decisions and the recovery of international supply.