Study: Battery-electric trucks becoming competitive on an increasing number of routes
Today, there are many use cases where battery-electric trucks outperform their diesel counterparts in terms of total cost of ownership. By 2030, this could apply to 70 to 90 per cent of road freight transport in Germany. That's according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The study – titled “Cost competitiveness of alternative heavy-duty truck technologies under real-world utilisation profiles” – was recently published by a research team from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in the scientific journal Nature. The core message: under the baseline assumptions regarding costs and technological maturity, battery-electric trucks in Germany will surpass comparable diesel trucks in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO) on 70 to 90 per cent of the kilometres covered in heavy-duty road freight transport by 2030.
In the introduction, the analysts emphasise that previous studies have often focused on average payload ranges or long-haul transport. However, the logistics sector is highly heterogeneous, encompassing a wide spectrum of truck usage patterns. The new study was therefore designed more broadly. It evaluates the economic viability of both battery-electric and fuel cell electric trucks using microdata from four million trucks across Europe. The researchers combine these real-world usage profiles with TCO forecasts for heavy-duty trucks—within a ‘scenario-based’ framework. In other words, they created an optimistic, a medium, and a pessimistic scenario for TCO development. Further details on the methodology can be found in the source links below. One important note: the study uses the abbreviation BET instead of BEV, and analogously FCET and ICET for fuel cell trucks and internal combustion engine trucks (see graphic below).
Regarding the results: according to the study, BEVs can achieve cost savings compared to diesel trucks by 2030 “for the majority of road kilometres in key European markets.” The researchers compared BEV trucks with small and large batteries, fuel cell trucks, and diesel trucks, simulating 160,000 kilometres per year in their calculations.
In the medium scenario, the small-battery variant is TCO-competitive for 91 per cent of road freight transport by 2030, while the large-battery variant achieves this for 69 per cent. In the optimistic scenario, nearly all usage profiles become economically viable by 2030, with TCO savings of up to €0.50 per kilometre. In pessimistic scenarios, however, BEV trucks only achieve cost parity with diesel trucks on 14 per cent (small battery) and 3 per cent (large battery) of routes.
The calculated TCO results from a complex balance between drivetrain efficiency, energy costs, battery size, and usage intensity. The research team highlights: “Higher annual mileages favour BETs in terms of cost-competitiveness, but are often linked to higher maximum daily mileages that can exceed the driving range under limited fast-charging availability.”
This is where technical feasibility comes into play, and the still incomplete charging network becomes noticeable: when accounting for the maximum daily ranges of BEVs and limited charging opportunities, the TCO advantage in the medium scenario drops to a lower bound of 21 to 25 per cent for the share of economically feasible road freight activities by 2030, according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
However, rapid expansion of fast-charging infrastructure and improvements in direct range could significantly increase this lower bound by 2035: to 63 to 77 per cent. “This analysis highlights the importance of coordinated EU-wide deployment of fast-charging infrastructure for the uptake of BETs. Furthermore, increased fast-charging deployment lowers the required direct driving range and allows smaller batteries to match conventional operations,” emphasises the team from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
And what about fuel cell trucks? According to the researchers, these face fewer restrictions in terms of range and operational suitability. However, their cost advantage over internal combustion engine trucks is smaller and more uncertain compared to BEVs due to lower efficiency, while simultaneously requiring higher investment costs. In other words: “In 2030, fuel cell electric trucks are cost-competitive with ICETs only under the most favourable conditions, covering 79% of road-freight activity with DCO gains less than half those of battery electric trucks.”
In direct comparison with BEVs, fuel cell trucks only become competitive under very specific conditions: if there is limited progress in the costs and technical parameters of BEVs in the future, if persistently high electricity prices prevail, and if FCEVs benefit from exceptionally low hydrogen prices, leading to a favourable cost trajectory. However, according to the researchers, such low hydrogen prices can only be expected if, around 2030, large-scale imports via sea routes and later via pipelines materialise.
The researchers interpret their findings as indicating that “plausible ranges for vehicle costs, technical maturity, and energy-carrier prices remain broad.” Uncertainties among customers and financial institutions, such as those concerning the lifespan of batteries and fuel cell stacks, could influence important economic assumptions like residual values. Here, existing policy instruments such as CO₂ emission standards or toll exemptions are “despite early-stage market and network barriers.” The analysts also note that the AFIR supports the rapid expansion of the charging network, while CO₂ pricing via ETS2 will further improve market conditions for the profitable operation of zero-emission vehicles.